Why crises in football are no coincidence

One defeat can happen. Two too. But when does a sporting dry spell turn into a real crisis?
Nächtliches Fußballspiel auf dem hell beleuchteten Rasenplatz, Spieler in White- und Dark-Trikots.

In professional football, the moment often seems to come abruptly: The results fail to materialize, the mood changes, the coach comes under pressure. What publicly appears to be a sudden collapse is, on closer inspection, the result of a longer, previously hidden process.

KIT researchers led by MuT spokesperson Prof. Dr. Darko Jekauc show that performance crises are not only decided on the pitch - but in the interplay of expectations, results and psychological dynamics (click here for the scientific paper). Although vast amounts of performance data are available in professional football, the mental processes behind instability and self-doubt have so far remained elusive. This is precisely where the new mathematical approach of the "Sporting crises in professional football" project of the "Health Education and Sport Psychology" group comes in.

Three indicators make crises visible

The Relative Position measures the growing gap between the expected and actual position in the football table. The Linear Rate of Change shows whether a team's long-term form curve is rising or falling. The Exponential Rate of Change is particularly sensitive - it reacts strongly to short-term deterioration and thus reflects psychological tipping points. Together, these variables allow a precise distinction to be made between normal fluctuations in performance and the onset of a genuine crisis.

This approach is illustrated by an analogy from physics: position, velocity and acceleration describe the movement of a body - here the dynamics of a team. This makes it clear why small problems can develop a momentum of their own that can hardly be stopped. It is also remarkable that one of the indicators is based on the mathematical constant Phi, which also occurs in biological and physical growth processes. Apparently, even collective psychological processes follow universal patterns.

This opens up new perspectives for football clubs

Instead of impulsive personnel decisions, the indicators enable early, analytically sound countermeasures to be taken. At the same time, the research shows how mathematics can help to better understand human behavior. An approach that not only applies to professional football - but to many systems in which expectations, dynamics and collective processes come together.

15.01.2026

Find out more at MuT2Go in February

On 11 February2026, Prof. Dr. Darko Jekauc presents the project "Sporting crises in professional soccer" in a new edition of MuT2Go.

Further links or documents